Key Points:
- Millennials are facing challenges in the housing market due to high prices and a nationwide housing shortage.
- Homebuilders are also struggling to build homes due to increased costs of materials and loans.
- Shares of leading US homebuilders have plummeted since July.
- Mortgage rates have reached the highest point in years, leading to a decrease in applications for fixed-rate mortgages.
- Existing home sales have fallen to their lowest levels since 2010, while new home sales initially increased but then started to decline.
- Major homebuilders such as Lennar, DR Horton, and NVR have seen a significant drop in their stocks.
- Builders are not incentivized to start new projects due to subdued demand.
- The National Association of Realtors expects mortgage rates to fall in the future, but home prices are predicted to continue increasing.
Tight Housing Market Puts Pressure on Homebuilders
Millennials are finding it increasingly difficult to break into the housing market due to high prices that reflect a nationwide housing shortage. However, homebuilders are also facing their own set of challenges as they struggle to build homes amidst rising costs and inflation.
According to a recent analysis by the Financial Times, shares of leading US homebuilders have seen a sharp decline since reaching a peak in July. This decline can be attributed to several factors, including rising mortgage rates, which have discouraged existing homeowners from selling their homes, and inflation, which has increased the cost of materials and loans.
Mortgage rates have recently hit the highest point in years, reaching 7.79% after starting the year at 6.48%. This increase has led to a decrease in applications for 30-year fixed-rate mortgages, which have reached their lowest point since 1995.
While new home sales initially saw a surge in September, with a month-over-month increase of over 12%, this growth was short-lived. By October, new home sales started to decline, with inflation driving up construction costs and impacting homebuilding confidence.
As a result, major homebuilders such as Lennar, DR Horton, NVR, and PulteGroup have seen significant drops in their stocks. Lennar, DR Horton, and NVR have experienced stock declines of over 16%, while PulteGroup, despite a surge earlier in the year, has also seen a 16% drop in its share price.
According to Oren Klachkin, a financial market economist at Nationwide, builders are unlikely to break ground on new projects as long as demand remains subdued. The housing market is not expected to see a turnaround until credit becomes less restrictive and affordability improves.
A Waiting Game for Prospective Homebuyers
For prospective homebuyers, getting into the housing market may require patience. The National Association of Realtors predicts that the 30-year fixed mortgage rate will fall back down to 6% by the end of 2024, while Goldman Sachs forecasts rates to fall below 7% by the end of next year.
However, this expected decrease in mortgage rates may be offset by increasing home prices. Zillow predicts that home prices, which have already increased by 26% since 2020, will continue to rise by nearly 5% next year.
In conclusion, the tight housing market is putting pressure on both millennials and homebuilders. While millennials struggle with high prices and a housing shortage, homebuilders face challenges in building homes due to rising costs. As a result, the housing market is experiencing a decline in sales and a drop in stock prices for major homebuilders. Prospective homebuyers may need to wait for mortgage rates to decrease while also facing the possibility of higher home prices in the future.
Hot Take:
The housing market continues to pose challenges for both millennials and homebuilders. While the demand for housing remains high, the shortage of available homes and rising costs are hindering both parties. The decrease in applications for fixed-rate mortgages highlights the difficulties faced by millennials in affording homes, while homebuilders are grappling with inflation and construction costs. It appears that the housing market is in need of a turnaround, with more affordable credit and increased affordability. However, the prediction of falling mortgage rates may provide some relief for prospective homebuyers in the future. Nonetheless, the continued increase in home prices will pose an ongoing challenge for those looking to enter the housing market.